ANALISIS DINAMIS DETERMINAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN VARIABEL LAG DI KALIMANTAN TENGAH

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the dynamic determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) using a lag variable approach to capture "impact lag" in regional development. The study population comprises all districts and cities in Central Kalimantan (2021–2025). Utilizing a non-probability sampling technique, 34 regional observations were analyzed through multiple linear regression using SPSS 27. The results reveal that Average Years of Schooling (LAG_X1) has a positive and dominant significant effect on HDI (t = 16.129; Sig. < 0.001), followed by Expenditure per Capita (LAG_X2) which also shows a significant positive influence (t = 13.701; Sig. < 0.001). Unemployment (LAG_X3) exhibits a significant effect as well, albeit with a smaller coefficient (t = 2.335; Sig. = 0.026). Simultaneously, all three lag variables significantly influence the HDI, yielding an Adjusted R Square of 84.0% and an F-statistic of 54.250 (Sig. < 0.001). These findings conclude the existence of a substantial "impact lag" in regional development, where past investments in education and the economy are far more determinant in driving current welfare outcomes than instantaneous changes.